2011: Let's All Try to Forget It

I had a horrendous 2011. The Dow was up 5.5% for the year, but I was down a staggering 27.5%. Without AgFeed, I still would have been down 14.9%. I sold my AgFeed position at the end of August for $1.012 a share. It stopped trading in December at $0.39. There's now a class-action lawsuit against AgFeed, but unless they're insured against the losses, I doubt I'll see anything. Well, it sucks, but better men than me have been burned by sketchy Chinese equities. See: John Paulson.

I've plotted my returns since 09/30/2008 against the Dow 30, above. I was outperforming the market from March of 2009 to March of 2011, but I've since eaten it. There's a lot of risk in my portfolio, so I can wait on a rebound, but I may have a really weak porfolio. I'm not getting rid of my casinos and my only winner has been the Pimco-managed bond fund (NYSE:PHK). I bought additional shares of Bank of America at $6, which will probably bite me in the end. The graph below plots my excess returns (the difference between my performance and the Dow's). If the graph is positive, I'm beating the Dow and if it's less, I'm underperforming. Proof I suck. I'm learning a lot in my Master's program, so when I'm less busy at work, I hope to revisit my portfolio and fix its weaknesses. Until then, I'm just praying for a rebound.

WHOOSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stupid Investors: So, how was your Q2, guys?

AgFeed, Industries: Not good.

Has AgFeed Turned?

Since June 10, 2009, AgFeed has been losing value. It's been more or less a straight shot to $1.00 from $7.96 a share. That's an 87.4% loss for anyone keeping score. So, imagine my surprise when this past Friday, it closed 82% above its May bottom.

My AgFeed position, when fully purchased, was 26.6% of my portfolio. The losses have been huge, and single-handedly responsible for my weaker 2010 and 2011 performances. Since January 1st, the Dow has risen 9.5%, yet my YTD returns are -4.3%. If AgFeed was only worth what it was on January 1st, I'd be up 3% YTD. So AgFeed's performance has lowered my whole portfolio's returns by 7.3%. However, I haven't sold it because I don't buy the valuation. At its bottom, its equity was worth $52 million. Bananas. So it looks like it could finally be turning, but I'm too scared to do what I want to do: sell everything I own and load up on AgFeed. This week, while I'm not actually working or in class, I'll be watching the market.

LVS purchase

I bought shares of Las Vegas Sands at $41.79 with all of my remaining cash. That puts quite a large part of my portfolio in Vegas (and Macau).

I've chatted up my Corporate Finance and Investments professors and found that they're both holding cash. Almost entirely. They're very pessimistic about the future. And both wrong. Hopefully.

End of 2010

Going into the end of the year, I'm holding:

21.68% of my portfolio in shares of PHK at a cost basis of $11.94 a share; 17.89% FEED at $3.99; 28.98% MGM at $10.16; 13.60% BAC at $14.80; and 17.85% in cash.

As of 12/30, I'm down 10.26% on BAC and down 32.55% on FEED. I'm up 5.11% on PHK, although I bought it for the 12% dividend, and I'm up 45.89% on MGM.

Happy New Year!

PHK

Bought 167 shares of PHK at $11.94. It's up 5%+ in a few days, but I'm holding it for the dividends. At $11.94 a share, it's paying 12%+ a share in dividends, annually. And I love that it pays out monthly. PHK is an ETF, the first one I've purchased in my discretionary account, but unless this thing goes to $14 a share in the short-term, I'm a long-term holder.

VMW Sold

I sold my shares of VMWare today at a 90% gain. It'll be a long-term capital gain on my taxes, just barely. I'm holding 40% cash as the market is at a 2 year high and I'm not sure where we're headed in the short-term. There's enough return and risk in my AgFeed, MGM Resorts, and Bank of America.