140 shares of NPD

Bought China Nepstar (NYSE:NPD) this afternoon at $5.25 a share. I should have bought back when I originally recommended it at $4.45, but oh well.

What changed my mind was the healthcare reforms that China is in the process of passing. For comparison, about 70% of the profits generated by American retail pharmacies (Rite-Aid, CVS, Walgreen's, etc;) come from drug prescriptions. In China, the hospitals run their own pharmacies. These generate a lot of cash for the hospitals, but people are upset at the apparent conflict of interest. So, China is passing some reforms that will move a lot of these prescription drugs to retailers like China Nepstar. There will still be "essential medicines" that the hospital will carry, but the business is changing. I bought these shares as a long term investment. Nepstar is still a growth stock, and I believe they can open thousands of new branches like they want to.

Thinking about Vegas

Las Vegas will rebound from this recession. It will. I can promise that. But when?

The chart above is of the Las Vegas Convention Authority's visitor statistics for the past 5 years. There was some growth between 2005 and 2006, but hardly any from 2006 to 2007. This chart also shows us when the current recession really began in Las Vegas. June 2008 looks par for the course, but traffic began plummeting in July. According to some, the recession technically began at the end of 2007, so Vegas is somewhat recession resistant. It took an additional 7 months before traffic started to decline.

So, is now a good time to buy Vegas equities? I like MGM Mirage (Jim Cramer favors Wynn) and I bought it back in October at $15.23 a share. I lost more than 50% on it when I got rid of it last month. But now it's trading below where I sold it, and when the market changes direction again, I'm quite sure it will benefit.

Usually Vegas sees a slower February than January, so it's a good sign that February this year was the stronger. That must mean that we're coming up off the lows, right? The dip in traffic that normally happens in April was also more mild. If we're going to see some benefits from the stimulus package in the second half of 2009, and growth in 2010, isn't this the time to buy in? There was a real threat of bankruptcy until recently, but MGM's accountants have removed their qualifications from financial statements, and now it looks like MGM will survive. MGM has fully financed CityCenter and it will open in December. How will all that new capacity affect rates? How soon can the casinos raise their rates back to 2007 levels? Ugh. It's all speculation. But that's where the real returns are located.

Portfolio Update 07.11.2009

I'm still losing money. The portfolio was down 6.88% this week. AgFeed was losing money until Thursday --- 10% jump on Thursday; 4.5% on Friday. It's currently trading at $5.02, down from a recent high of $7.71. It fell to $4.13 a share on Wednesday and it made me question my decision to ever buy any. Mistake. That was the moment that I should have spent all the available cash I have on more of it. I need to make some sort of decision this weekend and be invested when Q2 earnings start rolling in.

I've been looking at Entravision, MGM Mirage, Satyam Computer Services, and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam. I've ruled out Mahanagar but I'm unsure of what to do.

Portfolio Update 07.03.2009

I've lost money for a fourth straight week. There was a 2.6% drop in the Dow on Thursday, which I largely avoided. Since panic selling most of my holdings on the 17th, Leading Brands (NASDAQ:LBIX) has taken off. I bought 1,150 shares at $0.1899 and now they're trading at $0.59. I missed a 210% return on that one. The catalyst for the movement was Leading Brand's Q1 report, which had the company profitable for the first time in years. MGM has lost money, US Steel has lost money, Dr. Pepper is up, Boardwalk Partners is up slightly, and Entravision is down a lot. It looks increasingly likely that Entravision will have to file for bankruptcy. 40% of my portfolio is still in cash, so I'm just going to wait.

This chart uses January 1st (not October 1st) as its base, so my return appears to be 30%, but since I began investing it's actually 18%.